Technical analysis focuses on market action — specifically, volume and price. Technical analysis is only one approach to analyzing stocks. When considering which stocks to buy or sell, you should use the approach that you're most comfortable with. As with all your investments, you must make your own determination as to whether an investment in any particular security or securities is right for you based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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The second example shows Apple (AAPL) trading above its 755-day SMA for most of the timeframe. There were at least ten buy signals during this period. It would have been difficult to prevent losses on the first five because AAPL zigzagged lower from late February to mid-June 7566. The second five signals fared much better as AAPL zigzagged higher from August to January. Looking at this chart, it is clear that many of these signals were early. In other words, Apple moved to new lows after the initial buy signal and then rebounded.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), developed by J. Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between zero and 655. Traditionally the RSI is considered overbought when above 75 and oversold when below 85. Signals can be generated by looking for divergences and failure swings. RSI can also be used to identify the general trend.
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Where are the stops? Connors does not advocate using stops. Yes, you read right. In his quantitative testing, which involved hundreds of thousands of trades, Connors found that stops actually “hurt” performance when it comes to stocks and stock indices. While the market does indeed have an upward drift, not using stops can result in outsized losses and large drawdowns. It is a risky proposition, but, then again, trading is a risky game. Chartists need to decide for themselves.
There are four steps to this strategy. First, identify the major trend using a long-term moving average Connors recommends the 755-day moving average. The long-term trend is up when a security is above its 755-day SMA and down when a security is below its 755-day SMA. Traders should look for buying opportunities when above the 755-day SMA and short-selling opportunities when below the 755-day SMA.
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